More Coffee Talk

Today's Poinography post has more on Lingle's support of Jerry Coffee, and excerpts a Jerry Burris column which speculates:

If Coffee should win but be unable to campaign, the local GOP will have to select someone to take his place. The logical choice would be the next highest vote-getter in the primary, but there is no obligation to do that. The other five folks in the race are Mark Beatty, Chas. Collins, Jay Friedheim, Edward Pirkowski and Steve Tataii.
The Republicans may decide the remaining five lack the name-recognition and firepower to go head-to-head with the winner of the Democratic primary contest between U.S. Sen. Dan Akaka and U.S. Rep. Ed Case.
Enter: Who?
Speculation right now rests on Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou, who is nominally nonpartisan today but is well-identified with the Republican Party through his years in the Legislature.
Djou, who faces no opposition for re-election, has nonetheless been running expensive television ads reminding voters of who he is and admonishing them to remember his name.
And it would be a no-danger adventure for him to run for Senate, since he would not have to resign his seat on the council.
But at this point, the drama seems more focused on keeping Republican voters "at home" than it does on developing a complicated and some might even say devious plot to get a hand-picked candidate into the Senate race.
It would make sense that Lingle would like to see Republicans stay within their own party. That decreases the number of people who might "cross over" and end up voting for the more moderate Case against the liberal Akaka.
Why should Lingle care? She might want to run for the U.S. Senate herself one day, when her gubernatorial days are over.
A relatively youthful and relatively moderate Case, in the early years of his Senate career, would make a tougher opponent than an aging and far more liberal Akaka in the twilight of his senatorial days.

A Long Shot

Of course, if Coffee wins the primary and recovers enough to campaign in the general, then wins that, it might throw a wrench in Lingle's plan. But he's still older and probably in poorer health than Case, so he wouldn't be a big opponent should Lingle decide to run for Senate after her governorship is over (assuming she wins this election, which is very likely, but never say never.)

September 14 update: This comment to yesterday's Poinography post is very insightful:

On your final point: I think it was you that suggested the Lingle wants to be able to use the Senate race as an opportunity to raise the name recognition of one of her GOP “rising stars"? That certainly sounds like a reasonable secondary motive. But I think Lingle does want Ed Case to fail in his bid for the Senate and that is her primary motive in calling upon the GOP voters to NOT crossover.
Sam Slom and his network ARE encouraging crossover voting. I also think it coincides with the feeling of most Hawaii Republicans that Ed is really, at heart, one of them. Certainly most “kamaaina Republicans” feel that way. For them, voting for Case is not a matter of voting for a “lesser evil.” He’s their boy! Even the “Hawaii Reporter” Republicans are fond of Ed and have been promoting him for years, except for the estrangement when they were supporting Gabbard over Case for Congress.
Some hard right GOPers may think Ed is too “liberal” for them if they are motivated by social issues like opposition to gay rights or abortion and other women’s rights issues. For them, Ed might still be a “lesser evil” vote than Akaka. [Mark Beatty is socially conservative, and will be the "values voters'" choice--P.Z.]
SO I expect a significant GOP crossover. Enough to possibly swing the election to Case.
Also, I agree that the GOP would LOVE to have an opportunity to pick their candidate after they know whether Akaka or Case wins the Democratic nomination. If Case were to win, I think the best choice for them would be one of their key Hawaiian operatives. Lingle-them have been VERY smart in how they have worked the Hawaiian community in an effort to rebuild the old Haole-Hawaiian alliance that held sway for decades. A lot of Hawaiians would vote for a Micah Kane or a Sam Aiona over an Ed Case. Not enough to win, but it would help build loyalty among Hawaiian voters.
That logic disappears if Akaka wins the nomination, so I woud expect they would save Aiona or Kane and use the opportunity to build the profile of some other candidate.
I do agree that Lingle is trying to “game the system” and to assume onto herself powers that should remain with the voters. Even granting the fact that Coffee’s withdrawal was unforeseen and perhaps the Republicans should be given another chance to put forward a strong candidate, good faith with the voters would require that Lingle anounce in advance who they have in mind as Coffee’s replacement.
I repeat what I have said elsewhere. For all this talk about the “Democratic machine,” the Democratic Party is MUSH more internally democratic and transparent than the GOP under Lingle. Our State Convention was open to observers and broadcast for public review on Olelo. I called to see if I could observe the GOP convention and there were few sessions open and even then, I would have to have been a guest of a GOP officeholder or candidate. Our platform, resolutions and Rules are posted for public review on our website. Can someone provide me a link to such documents on the GOP website–I can’t find them.
Comment by Bart — 9/13/2006 @ 11:08 am